Will Podcasting Survive?
Part of the Digestion Phase that we wrote about last week is evaluating technology trends. We can identify a clear set of winners: online video and online photo are taking off, vertical search engines are making great progress, MySpace and Facebook are the new social phenomenon, etc. But not everything we recently invented is working out.I remember being in a cab in New York City listening to John Furier’s coverage of DEMO 2006 and thinking it was nothing short of inspiring. Later that year when my company launched its own product at DEMOFall, it was even more inspirational to be interviewed by John. So when I saw the news a few days ago that John leaving PodTech, I was particularly sad. Certainly things were complicated and the company was in trouble, but the reason it was upsetting to me is because John is one of the major figures behind the podcasiting movement.
PodTech has been doing much more than just podcasting, of course, but John’s departure leads to a question: What is going on with podcasting in general? We certainly do not hear about it as much as we used to these days. Is it because it simply became part of our culture that we take for granted? Unlikely. It seems that podcasting has not really made it into our daily lives. In this post we look at podcasting and try to decipher why it never got big.
Podcasts As An Evolution of Radio
The original idea of a podcast was simple. Take the an audio broadcast (radio), let everyone do it (user generated) and then throw it on top of RSS to let people consume the content on demand. Unlike the radio, which is programmed, limited and sequential, podcasts are rich and can be consumed whenever people like. Technically anyone with a decent microphone, a computer, and recording software can create a podcast. And since broadband is now widespread, consuming large audio files over the web is no longer an issue. So when podcasting was brought came onto the scene in 2004 it made a lot of sense to many people and quickly became popular.
A Look At Podcast As A Trend
But recently there seems to have been a decrease in enthusiasm over podcasts. Before we look into the reason’s why, lets take a look at these three trend graphs below and draw a couple of conclusions from them. The podcast trend appears to have stagnated, while podcasting has just been going out of fashion at a steady clip. Podcast as a trend seems to be by far less popular than blog and video (although to be fair, video may include much more than online video).
Why Podcasts Are Stagnating?
Competition with Video and Blogs
The first trouble for podcasts is that they compete with online video and blogs. Videos are cooler, shorter, can be consumed on demand, and satisfy multiple senses. Podcasts, on the other hand, are something you need to specifically listen to. They typically consist of a discussion you need to be able to focus on to follow. As a result, podcasts can’t really compete with music, which is something that many of us can enjoy while working.
Blogs are also a threat, because people spend a lot of time reading them. Blogs and podcasts require different levels of concentration. We can skim through blogs, but its harder to skim through podcasts. We are used to reading web pages, but listening to lengthy discussion without a visual is not something that we’re used to on the web. Most radio content is music or news, so the content itself and the format in which podcasts are delivered presents an adoption challenge.
Limited Applicability
The attention that podcasts demand presents another problem. When can we listen to them? It seems that most natural place would be while commuting, instead of listening to the radio. The only barrier there is that content producers need to keep the content up to date. This is not a big barrier, because the updates happen automatically. So this works – we listen to podcasts while commuting or traveling. This is, however, a rather specific and limited time and perhaps not a large enough window of attention to allow podcasts to flourish. And going to the content issue, when we are coming home from work, do we really want to listen to a sophisticated discussion? Maybe not.
Monetization is a Challenge
As with any new medium there needs to be a path to revenue. Podcasts must rely on advertising to make money since there is no way that most people would pay for them. The difficulty is measuring reach. Of course, you can argue that consumption can be tracked through RSS subscriptions, but RSS measurement is a very inexact science and further, may not be as appealing to advertisers who are likely to be biased towards web ads. Another issue is when to inject advertising. We’re catering to a sophisticated early adopter audience that might get quickly annoyed if presented with many irrelevant ads. The only model that seems to work really well is sponsorship model, but how much money can be made this way?
Competition From Big Media
The last problem may be delivering the final blow to podcasting — competition from big media companies. They all quickly figured out that recycling their audio content into podcasts is easy. And so many of them have done it. NPR, CNN, and National Geographic, for example, make their content available as podcasts. Looking at what is popular on iTunes we see very few independently produced podcasts, but rather a top downloads page that is dominated by the pros:
Conclusion
It appears that podcasts are not picking up, and podcasting is actually slowing down. There is not enough incentive for people to jump exclusively into podcasting because of tight competition from video, blogs, big media and a lack of clear monetization methods. However, it does not mean that podcasts are not here to stay.
One great thing that we already got from the podcasting revolution is choice. Media companies were forced to micro chunk and give us their content on our terms. We now can consume it in whatever way that we prefer, whenever we want it.
And even though podcasting is not likely to become as popular as user generated videos, we were lucky to get a generation of people who emerged as outstanding podcasters: Jason Calacanis, Amber Mac and of course, John Furrier. No matter what happens next with podcasting, what has been done is already important. Not necessarily in a huge way, but in a meaningful way.
Awesome. I love your blog posts Alex. You are a great, direct blogger with something important and useful to say in every blog entry.
This is an interesting entry about podcasting. Recently, I just came across RU Sirius podcast blog from a GLOWLAB newsletter that has a link of a RU Sirius interview with NOSO (No Social Networking) website.
RU Sirius has some awesome interviews. I love hearing the conversations evolve. It’s a symphonic experience that I do not get from reading a blog or watching a You Tube Video.
The minute I heard the term RSS feed I immediately knew that podcasting would fail. RSS I think was what stopped people in their tracks when it came to wanting to produce a podcast or listen to a podcast. The delivery of podcasts was not at all packaged well for the mainstream market where some people were just starting to buy their first mac.
I think more website that aggregate podcast stations for easy download to the ipod would help increase the popularity of podcasts. I think apple could do a better job at promoting podcasts.
Or if podcasts took a step backwards and could be downloaded as just a bundle of MP3s instead of some RSS feed. Especially since some podcasters are also procrastinators who never come up with new shows so even if I have a feed the lack of content leaves space for me to forget about the podcast altogether.
Whereas, an email alert that a new podcast is available or a bundle can now be downloaded to my ipod then I’d be happy to go to the website and get a bunch of cool ass media interviews, put them on my ipod to listen at my leisure.
RU Sirus has “RSS FEED” button but I totally skip over them and go right to the MP3 download link.
If the site was more graphically appealing I’d also be more apt to download an MP3.
These are just random thoughts on the subject.
I love your blog. It’s the only one I actually read and want to read because each entry is useful to me as a media thinker and adds to my knowledge of media instead of just adding to my bucket of media gadgets.
Thanks and keep it up!!!
MediaMisfit
August 29, 2007
Podtrac.com is interesting. Lets one view all episodes of a show from the show’s website so the user does not have to scroll down to links or commit to subscribing to an rss feed he/she may forget about, but the catch is it’s corporate evil. Podtrac.com also will put ads in the podcasts to make the green grow taller.
MediaMisfit
August 29, 2007
Thanks Sarah, great to know that you enjoy my writing.
RSS is just really an news notification mechanism, its not fundamental to podcasts, but there is probably little reason to reinvent the wheel.
I will check out the sites you mentioned, thanks.
Alex
alexiskold
August 29, 2007
Podcasting is not an audio only phenomenon, and podcasting itself is not the evolution of radio, it’s the revolution of online distribution, utilizing RSS to distribute any type of content whether it be audio, video, documents, or applications.
So while this article looks to be a well thought out examination of our industry, it is nothing more than another desultory attempt to associate podcasting with audio while in the same breath pointing to the success of online video or IPTV, a notion that makes video podcasters cringe. Many of the article’s later points are therefore null and void because they apply strictly to User Generated audio podcasts, a small subset of all of the RSS 2.0 enclosure feeds on the web today. Alex does echo the point of monetization quite clearly, and I agree with him wholeheartedly. Monetizing podcasts and downloadable content on the web is a challenge we face, but one that many companies and organizations are working to solve. The solution is education. Educating the media, advertisers, podcasters, and even commercial broadcast outlets is the main concern for podcasting in 2008, because without an educated public podcasting will continue to be conceived as a HAM radio experiment from Adam Curry and not the innovation in media creation that it is.
Podcasting is and will continue to be the most user-friendly method of content distribution because it’s time and place shifted by nature, something that consumers have demanded for decades. Furthermore, due to Apple’s out of the box podcast support products like the iPhone and Apple TV will continue to allow audiences around the world to enjoy high quality content from web publishers in a variety of ways. While audio may be falling out of fashion, video has brought new life to Podcasting and it isn’t going away anytime soon.
Matthew
August 31, 2007
First of all, syndication with RSS is what makes a podcast or videocast important, just like your blog- without subscription, it’s just more files on the net- the fact that you can have files erved up to you automatically, and create your own channels of content is what this whole thing is about.
When I meet people and tell them I have a podcast, many still say “what’s a podcast?” I think it’s WAY early in the game to think podcasting is over. And why is this?
(1) The name makes many people assume it’s an ipod only, not just audio files on the internet. So we have a job ahead of us educating others.
(2) As much as it shocks the heck out of those of us that are internet natives, not everyone has high speed or broadband to their homes. They don’t see it as the same as coughing up money to the cable company, and are still happy with (dare I say it) dial up service. And while you can read blogs like this one just fine with dial up, it is an absolute barrier to audio and vido on demand on the internet.
(3)With the installation of community based wifi (only available in very few cities) and even this can be another financial cost for monthly access, we have to look at the technical divide we are creating between those who see constant internet access as vital to their jobs, and those who don’t use it at all, or not as intensely-yet.
We need to remember, before condemning podcasting as a failed experiment that it may be a bit ahead of the curve. Let’s remember many people dont feel laptops and blackberrys are mere extensions of their arm.
We all thought web TV was a failed experiment a few yearsback, and now Aplle has introduced Apple TV- so the merger between computer and TV is just getting closer to the marketplace.
But let’s face it. Until high speed internet connections are available in every home nationwide, even in “farm country”, when it’s affordable and computers capable of processing video quickly are also in every home, we are talking about a fraction of the potential audience that can even access what’s out there at this point in time.
You can go buy a tv, plug it in to any outlet, and get reception and at least a few channels of content anywhere in the US. To access the internet, you need at least a phone line and a susbscription service. To get high speed connections, if they are available in your area, that’s even more expensive. there’s a higher financial barrier to cross to even access content still, so i think you need to take these factors into consideration before writing off podcasting at this point in time.
whitney hoffman
August 31, 2007
RSS is what makes podcasting work – and those of us who commute for more than 30 mins each way find most podcasts fit perfectly into this schedule. Now that more people understand feeds and what they can do, and more portable devices support multi-media, I think podcasting has more of a future, not less. I listen to 6 or 7 shows on my corporate-issue Nokia phone so there is no juggling of lots of different gadgets and I don’t miss any phone calls. When my boss decides to upgrade my Blackberry to a model that supports MP3 I’ll be down to a single lump of technology in my pocket . Only one of the shows I am subscribed to is updated daily (Tech5 by John C Dvorak), and that only lasts 5 minutes or so, so I always have something fresh and entertaining to listen to. Access to podcastable music (on the Podsafe Music Network – http://music.podshow.com) means I we don’t just have to listen to someone chatting all the time, and Skype allows decent quality audio for interviews instead of recorded phone calls. I don’t think podcasting is stagnating, from what I see and hear there are more people entering the “industry” with high quality content.
Richard, Claygate, UK
ukrichardah
September 14, 2007